December 7, 2022

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Novo, Lilly to profit essentially the most from weight problems, however Cowen says do not forget about different gamers

Deepak Verma

World weight problems drug gross sales are more likely to hit ~$30B through 2020, in line with Cowen, with Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) more likely to dominate the marketplace.

However the Wall Side road company additionally tells traders not to handiest be aware of different pharmas with weight reduction drug within the pipeline, however keep watch over corporations creating scientific units and virtual therapeutics to make in-roads within the weight problems remedy area.

In a Nov. 18 document, Cowen stated that remedy for weight problems is handiest in its fledgling state. Handiest 30% of overweight folks ever obtain a prognosis and remedy charges are handiest within the low unmarried digits. The company added that drug remedy is handiest utilized by simply 1%-2% of overweight sufferers.

In a June survey, Cowen discovered that weight problems consultants stated they view drugs as suitable for ~60% in their sufferers. That compares to twenty% for surgical intervention. A survey of physicians and payors performed in October through Cowen discovered that they agree that the proportion of non-diabetic overweight sufferers on weight-loss medication is about to extend considerably.

Pharmacotherapy

Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Lilly (LLY) are looking for to extend weight problems drugs utilization, and hastily, with their respective GLP-1 receptor agonists, Wegovy (semaglutide) and tirzepatide. Cowen tasks Wegovy gross sales of over $7B and over tirzepatide gross sales of greater than $11B in 2030. Tirzepatide is recently authorized as a kind 2 diabetes remedy underneath the title Mounjaro however Lilly (LLY) is pursuing the drug for weight reduction in segment 3.

Cowen may be bullish on Novo (NVO) candidate CagriSema, a mix of semaglutide and a singular amylin analogue, cagrilintide. The pharma launched sure segment 2 ends up in August appearing discounts in blood sugar stage and weight. Section 3 is slated to begin in 2023. Cowen sees $5B in CagriSema gross sales if knowledge continues to accomplish smartly.

Within the pipeline, Lilly (LLY) has the GLP-1R/GIPR/GCGR triple agonist retatrutide in segment 2 with an information replace anticipated in January 2023. Different massive pharmas with weight problems applicants in mid-to-late degree construction come with Merck’s (NYSE:MRK) GLP-1R/GCGR twin agonist efinopegdutide (knowledge replace additionally in January), Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) oral remedy danuglipron, AltImmune’s (ALT) GLP-1R/GCGR twin agonist pemvidutide (ALT-801 (knowledge replace June 2023), and AstraZeneca’s (AZN) GLP-1/GCGR twin agonist cotadutide (replace July 2025).

Scientific Gadgets

On this space, Cowen sees Apollo Endoscopy (APEN) as its best select in weight problems. The corporate’s endoscopic sleeve gastroplasty (ESG) process makes use of its proprietary OverStitch endoscopic suturing gadget. The corporate is creating the OverStitch NXT unmarried channel endoscopic suturing gadget this is stated to have enhanced efficiency traits making it more uncomplicated to make use of, increasing get right of entry to to the era.

Cowen additionally touted Apollo’s (APEN) space-occupying instrument, the Orbera Intragastric Balloon Machine, calling it “the main gastric balloon international.” The company added the instrument can result in 10% weight reduction.

Cowen highlighed ReShape Lifesciences (RSLS) which makes Obalon, an intragastric balloon that is stuffed with gasoline. In a single find out about, Obalon resulted in a mean 4.2% weight reduction at 12 weeks, making it not as good as different balloons.

Virtual Therapeutics

Even if Higher Therapeutics (BTTX) is creating BT-001 as a prescription virtual healing (“PDT”) for kind 2 diabetes, Cowen stated the software-based device can also be implemented to weight problems. A PDT, typically present in an app, makes use of cognitive behavioral remedy to spot behaviors that can result in dangerous way of life and vitamin selections and make personalised exchange suggestions.